US shale exports open the door to Asian chemicals makers
For years, US chemical companies have benefitted from the Obama administration’s efforts to make the shale gas boom the saviour of US energy security. With US companies forbidden to export gas, the...
View ArticleTough choices for EM policy makers in a post-QE world
Emerging market economies with current account deficits have had little to smile about since Ben Bernanke first mentioned ‘tapering’ of QE in May. This chart (after the break) from Aberdeen Asset...
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China’s toll roads – who goes there?
China’s local-government infrastructure initiatives are notoriously poor revenue generators. Toll roads may be the worst offenders. Provincial debts to fund expressways – China’s motorways, most of...
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Doing business in Sri Lanka: a cautionary tale
A leading British hotelier in Sri Lanka faces deportation after hanging the Sri Lankan flag upside down. Should foreign businessmen on the island beware? The bizarre turn of events began shortly before...
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Another thing baby boomers are ruining: emerging markets (via the Fed)
Riding off into the sunset, taking EMs with them... The US Federal Reserve may have underestimated the speed of falling unemployment in the US. This could be bad news for emerging market assets. Fund...
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Why EM asset managers are on a hair trigger for selling
Hyun Song Shin, head of research at the Bank for International Settlements, has been sounding alarm bells over the debt issued by emerging market corporates since last year. His latest research,...
View ArticleG20 takes aim at anonymous companies
Try to guess the weapon of choice common to Mexico’s infamous Los Zetos drugs cartel, a gang of Moldovan people traffickers and the Russian gangster that the FBI calls “the most dangerous mobster in...
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EM corporate hard-currency debt: a bank run in the making?
Beyondbrics recently warned that spiralling interest payments on hard currency bonds might yet cause EM corporates a big headache. The pain may be drawing closer: the recent slide of Asian currencies...
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A new economic crystal ball for EM gazers
How to predict future growth in emerging markets (EM)? This is a million dollar question for investors and policymakers. Dozens of crystal-ball indices have sprung up but most of them are pretty poor...
View ArticleOil versus the current account: have investors got it wrong?
Emerging market currencies may have received a boost against the dollar last week after the European Central Bank announced its programme of quantitative easing, with those of South Africa, Russia,...
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New Sri Lankan government hobbled by old Chinese debts?
The Chinese banks and companies that have bankrolled Sri Lanka’s recent infrastructure boom have much to lose from the recent change of government. To prime Sri Lanka’s economy in the aftermath of the...
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The four potential crises stalking EM
With US interest rate hikes likely this year, EM markets may be catapulted into four separate currency, sovereign or banking crises – more than double the long-term average, according to research from...
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Western oil firms struggle over payment for Kurdish oil
You’ve sunk your wells, started drilling; have extracted tens of millions of barrels of oil for export. But a year down the line, you still haven’t been paid. This is the predicament faced by several...
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Fallen angels changing the face of high yield bond market
With a flock of ‘fallen angels’ from Russia and Latin America re-shaping the euro-denominated high yield bond market, investors are scratching their heads about whether they are a blessing or a curse....
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